If you’ve tipped as well as us, these prizes will be irrelevant, but some of you are in the running for some great stuff from our sponsors:
- A custom kit voucher for $1500 from Champion System
- 2013 Cell Swift bike
- Bolle Vortex sunglasses
- 100th edition TdF DVD
- Le Coq Sportif Replica Jerseys
- CyclingTips team kit comprising jersey, knicks and vest
- Choice of BMC or Argos-Shimano team kit compliments of Pearl Izumi
But just like stage 9, anything can happen and tables can turn, so keep tipping away. Don’t forget we’ve also set up a new pool in the competition – so whether you’ve fallen off the back of the gruppetto, or haven’t joined us yet it’s not too late. To join the week 2 competition, click here.
For those of you who are into stats, Tim and Woody (the guys running the tipping competition hidden away in the back closet) has an extensive review of week 1 for you.
Week 1 Tipping Roundup
by Woody and Goon
We’ve spent the rest day dodging groupies and tabulating statistics and thinking of meaningful ways to display data for large tipping competitions. We failed, succeeded and failed respectively.
Anyhow, we locked the nerds in the basement before we went out last night and instructed them to come up with some interesting facts and figures to share with the tipping peloton. We only gave them a limited data set – all of the tips from the Cyclingtips Default Tipping Pool. We also gave them a case of Red Bull and the race results.
They analysed a total of 8,964 tips over nine stages. A few tippers were excluded from the analysis due to excessive default tipping or other outlierish qualities.
WHO TIPPED WHO
Just eight riders accounted for more than half of the 8,964 tips, and the top 16 accounted for over 75%.
|Rider||Tips||% of all tips|
|Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver||524||45%|
|Alejandro Valverde Belmonte||458||50%|
|Rui Alberto Faria da Costa||397||59%|
|Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas||357||63%|
|Edvald Boasson Hagen||264||66%|
There are still five major climbing stages left (Ventoux, ITT2, Alpe d’Huez, Madeleine and Annecy-Semnoz) which suggests that lots of people will be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find suitable climbers. We were fast to heap praise on Froome after his performance on Stage 8, but the fact remains that there are three mountaintop finishes left and 75% of people have already used Froome!
In terms of total losses, Stage 9 was the most dangerous, followed by Stage 8 then Stage 2. Damage frequency (number of tippers losing at least 60 seconds) was highest on Stage 8, when most people failed to tip Froome or Porte. Stages 2 and 5 caused far more carnage than we would have expected. By the time the tipping peloton reached the start of stage 8, 418 unique tippers had dropped at least 60 seconds. By the time the peloton reached stage 9…930 tippers had dropped at least 60 seconds. There are only 42 who have yet to drop a minute on a single stage.
|Stage||Time Lost (Hrs)||Tippers losing at least 60s||Tippers losing their first minute|
Below is a visual reference of the impact of those dangerous stages on our collective tipping times. Shown along the horizontal axis are the tipping leaders from first to last against the vertical axis showing the time difference.
While we saw some dangerous stages, there were also some riders who caused absolute carnage in the tipping peloton. Again, we can split damage frequency and total damage. In terms of damage frequency (number of times the tipped rider dropped at least 60 seconds), Quintana leads all challengers, followed by Valverde. All of these losses were from Stage 8; excluding the devil stage, it’s Goss, Voeckler and Porte who caused the most damage.
In terms of cumulative damage, it comes as no surprise that Voeckler is at the top of the table. He has caused an astonishing 37.38 hrs of damage to the peloton. That works out to over 13 minutes each time he was tipped…
|Rider||Times lost 60s||Total hrs lost||Unit losses (min/tip)|
|Alberto Contador Velasco||54||1.71||1.19|
|Alejandro Valverde Belmonte||174||3.85||0.50|
|Christophe Le Mevel||1||0.39||23.20|
|Haimar Zubeldia Agirre||2||0.76||15.14|
|Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver||115||4.51||0.52|
|Juan Jose Lobato||4||1.27||15.18|
|Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas||212||6.97||1.17|
|Rui Alberto Faria da Costa||54||2.69||0.41|
Taken together, what does all of this mean? Basically that if you’re within a few minutes of the leaders, you are absolutely in with a chance, particularly if you have saved some strong riders. There’s no point aiming for breaks if your default break rider is Voeckler. The consequences of missing the break or losing…disaster. If you’re within 15 minutes, you have a prayer, but it’s going to be all about the breaks. Again, it’s le Tour so anything could happen. If you’re OTA by more than 15 minutes…well, it’s possible, but please make sure you tell us about it as it would be a spectacular recovery.
As a consolation prize, you can always count on beating us – Woody and I are languishing in 617th and 932nd…
We hope you’re enjoying tipping every day as much as we are putting it all together. Good luck this week!
Goon and Woody
Click here to see the tipping dashboard page, log in to CyclingTips, and good luck tipping in week 2!
In case you’ve forgotten, read more about How it Works.