If you’ve tipped as well as us, these prizes will be irrelevant, but some of you are in the running for some great stuff from our sponsors:

- A custom kit voucher for $1500 from Champion System
- 2013 Cell Swift bike
- Bolle Vortex sunglasses
- 100th edition TdF DVD
- Le Coq Sportif Replica Jerseys
- CyclingTips team kit comprising jersey, knicks and vest
- Choice of BMC or Argos-Shimano team kit compliments of Pearl Izumi

Click here for all the prize details

But just like stage 9, anything can happen and tables can turn, so keep tipping away. Don’t forget we’ve also set up a new pool in the competition – so whether you’ve fallen off the back of the gruppetto, or haven’t joined us yet it’s not too late. To join the week 2 competition, click here.

For those of you who are into stats, Tim and Woody (the guys running the tipping competition hidden away in the back closet) has an extensive review of week 1 for you.

Enjoy!

Wade

Week 1 Tipping Roundup
by Woody and Goon

We’ve spent the rest day dodging groupies and tabulating statistics and thinking of meaningful ways to display data for large tipping competitions. We failed, succeeded and failed respectively.

Anyhow, we locked the nerds in the basement before we went out last night and instructed them to come up with some interesting facts and figures to share with the tipping peloton. We only gave them a limited data set – all of the tips from the Cyclingtips Default Tipping Pool. We also gave them a case of Red Bull and the race results.

They analysed a total of 8,964 tips over nine stages. A few tippers were excluded from the analysis due to excessive default tipping or other outlierish qualities.

WHO TIPPED WHO

Just eight riders accounted for more than half of the 8,964 tips, and the top 16 accounted for over 75%.

Rider Tips % of all tips
Peter Sagan 958 11%
Christopher Froome 726 19%
Richie Porte 649 26%
Mark Cavendish 608 33%
Daniel Martin 531 39%
Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver 524 45%
Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 458 50%
Andre Greipel 445 55%
Rui Alberto Faria da Costa 397 59%
Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas 357 63%
Edvald Boasson Hagen 264 66%
Simon Gerrans 204 68%
Matthew Goss 204 71%
David Millar 200 73%
Philippe Gilbert 189 75%
Other 2250 25%
TOTAL 8964 100%

There are still five major climbing stages left (Ventoux, ITT2, Alpe d’Huez, Madeleine and Annecy-Semnoz) which suggests that lots of people will be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find suitable climbers. We were fast to heap praise on Froome after his performance on Stage 8, but the fact remains that there are three mountaintop finishes left and 75% of people have already used Froome!

DANGEROUS STAGES

In terms of total losses, Stage 9 was the most dangerous, followed by Stage 8 then Stage 2. Damage frequency (number of tippers losing at least 60 seconds) was highest on Stage 8, when most people failed to tip Froome or Porte. Stages 2 and 5 caused far more carnage than we would have expected. By the time the tipping peloton reached the start of stage 8, 418 unique tippers had dropped at least 60 seconds. By the time the peloton reached stage 9…930 tippers had dropped at least 60 seconds. There are only 42 who have yet to drop a minute on a single stage.

Stage Time Lost (Hrs) Tippers losing at least 60s Tippers losing their first minute
S1 0.00 0 0
S2 40.38 160 160
S3 7.22 57 46
S4 5.52 77 57
S5 21.45 127 80
S6 1.20 10 2
S7 32.63 135 73
S8 47.62 829 512
S9 79.62 246 24
None 42
TOTAL 235.64 1641 996

Below is a visual reference of the impact of those dangerous stages on our collective tipping times. Shown along the horizontal axis are the tipping leaders from first to last against the vertical axis showing the time difference.

Chart Screen Shot 2013-07-09 at 1.34.54 PM

DANGEROUS RIDERS

While we saw some dangerous stages, there were also some riders who caused absolute carnage in the tipping peloton. Again, we can split damage frequency and total damage. In terms of damage frequency (number of times the tipped rider dropped at least 60 seconds), Quintana leads all challengers, followed by Valverde. All of these losses were from Stage 8; excluding the devil stage, it’s Goss, Voeckler and Porte who caused the most damage.

In terms of cumulative damage, it comes as no surprise that Voeckler is at the top of the table. He has caused an astonishing 37.38 hrs of damage to the peloton. That works out to over 13 minutes each time he was tipped…

Rider Times lost 60s Total hrs lost Unit losses (min/tip)
Alberto Contador Velasco 54 1.71 1.19
Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 174 3.85 0.50
Alexander Kristoff 59 16.05 10.03
Andre Greipel 23 4.92 0.66
Blel Kadri 7 1.95 16.70
Brice Feillu 5 1.91 19.11
Christophe Le Mevel 1 0.39 23.20
Gorka Izagirre 4 1.66 24.90
Haimar Zubeldia Agirre 2 0.76 15.14
Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver 115 4.51 0.52
John Degenkolb 45 8.46 6.59
Jonathan Hivert 1 0.49 14.60
Juan Jose Lobato 4 1.27 15.18
Jurgen Roelandts 2 0.54 16.23
Lieuwe Westra 12 2.97 14.86
Marcel Kittel 53 11.24 3.77
Matthew Goss 125 24.10 7.09
Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas 212 6.97 1.17
Pierre Rolland 75 7.02 3.66
Richie Porte 64 20.43 1.89
Rui Alberto Faria da Costa 54 2.69 0.41
Sébastien Minard 1 0.29 17.57
Thibaut Pinot 27 6.22 7.62
Thomas Voeckler 95 37.39 13.60
TOTAL 1214 167.79 0.02

Taken together, what does all of this mean? Basically that if you’re within a few minutes of the leaders, you are absolutely in with a chance, particularly if you have saved some strong riders. There’s no point aiming for breaks if your default break rider is Voeckler. The consequences of missing the break or losing…disaster. If you’re within 15 minutes, you have a prayer, but it’s going to be all about the breaks. Again, it’s le Tour so anything could happen. If you’re OTA by more than 15 minutes…well, it’s possible, but please make sure you tell us about it as it would be a spectacular recovery.

As a consolation prize, you can always count on beating us – Woody and I are languishing in 617th and 932nd…

We hope you’re enjoying tipping every day as much as we are putting it all together. Good luck this week!

Goon and Woody

Click here to see the tipping dashboard page, log in to CyclingTips, and good luck tipping in week 2!

In case you’ve forgotten, read more about How it Works.