Chasing The Tour | Stage 7 – Where Will Cadel Make His Time On Wiggins?

July 08, 2012

Stage 7 up to La Planche des Belles was the first glimpse into who the genuine contenders for the GC and there were no real surprises. Just as in the Dauphiné we saw Team SKY come to the front and obliterate the field in the final climb. Only a few could hold on with Rogers and Porte driving the pace and Cadel's attack in the final kilometer only set Froome off his leash to chase him down and take the win. So how is Evans going to win the Tour against the firepower of SKY? He only needs 10 seconds, but where will it come from?

I’ve taken a look at Dauphiné and Tour de France time trial results since 2009 where both Wiggins and Cadel have both raced against the clock. Circumstances have been different in each case, but not once has Cadel beaten Wiggins in a ITT since 2009 at this time of year.

2009 TdF (40.5 km)

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 00:48:31
…
6 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin – Slipstream 0:00:42
…
12 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto 0:01:14

2010 TdF (52km)

1. Fabian Cancellara, Team Saxo Bank, in 1h 00? 56?
…
9. Bradley Wiggins, Sky Pro Cycling, at 03:33
…
166. Cadel Evans, BMC Racing Team, at 10:57 (had a fractured elbow as a result of a bad crash)

2011 Dauphine (42.5km)

1. Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:55:27
…
2. Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:11
…
6 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:01:20

2012 Dauphine (53km)

1 WIGGINS, Bradley (GBR) SKY PROCYCLING 1:03:12
…
8 EVANS, Cadel AUS BMC RACING +1:43

Wiggins knows that he just needs to control the mountain stages and he’ll win in the time trials. He told cyclingnews after the stage today:

“I knew I was dictating the pace and that I wanted to keep it high threshold and not go too much into the red and I knew that if someone wanted to attack off that pace they’d have to be going quite a bit more, which I know is not really sustainable if we’re riding at 470 to 480 Watts. Someone is going to have to go a lot harder to sustain that. As long as we gauge it like that I knew we’d be alright.”

I have my doubts that SKY rode 470 watts the whole way up La Planche des Belles (at 69kg this would put Wiggins in the 6.8w/kg zone and those days are hopefully over), but there very well could have been short periods. If SKY are riding at this high of a tempo (or even lower) there’s nobody who can attack and sustain the pace in order to make up significant time gains in the mountains. This is Wiggins’ strategy to win the Tour, but I wonder what Cadel’s is?

It’s all speculation at this point and we still have two weeks remaining…

Stage 7 Photos

: The peloton early in the stage not chasing too hard as a group of seven broke away 15km in (Gautier, Sanchez, Sorensen, Fofonov, Veltis, Albasini, and Riblon)

: Convoy of team cars near the wheat fields outside the village of Saffais

: The final four; Chris Froome, Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali, and Bradley Wiggins making to the finish line in La Planche Des Belles Filles. Evans attacked inside the final kilometer but this prompted Froome to chase him down and overtake him to the finish.

: Cadel Evans grimacing as he tries to maintain a distance on Wiggins at the 150meters from the finish line

: From the 100 meter mark, Chris Froome looking back at Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins

: Chris Froome takes his first Tour de France stage win and SKY’s second win of the 2012 Tour

: This wasn’t Sagan’s preferred terrain, but he still managed to steal the show

: When I asked Lloydy how it went at the top of La Planche des Belles he said, “yeah…alright” and shrugged his shoulders nonplussed like it was a club race he’s just training through.

: Bradley Wiggins takes the yellow jersey after stage 7 and leads Cadel Evans by 6 seconds

Stage 8 Preview

Race Results Summary

Tour de France (2012) - Stage 7

Tomblaine to La Planche des Belles Filles (199km)

7 Jul 2012

View the full race results

Stage

Position	Name	Nationality	Team	Time
1	FROOME, Chris	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING	4:58:35
2	EVANS, Cadel	AUS	BMC RACING	2
3	WIGGINS, Bradley	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING
4	NIBALI, Vincenzo	ITA	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	7
5	TAARAMAE, Rein	EST	COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE	19
6	ZUBELDIA AGIRRE, Haimar	ESP	RADIOSHACK-NISSAN	44
7	ROLLAND, Pierre	FRA	TEAM EUROPCAR	46
8	BRAJKOVIC, Janez	SLO	ASTANA
9	MENCHOV, Denis	RUS	KATUSHA	50
10	MONFORT, Maxime	BEL	RADIOSHACK-NISSAN	56

General Classification

Position	Name	Nationality	Team	Time
1	WIGGINS, Bradley	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING	34:21:20
2	EVANS, Cadel	AUS	BMC RACING	10
3	NIBALI, Vincenzo	ITA	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	16
4	TAARAMAE, Rein	EST	COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE	32
5	MENCHOV, Denis	RUS	KATUSHA	54
6	ZUBELDIA AGIRRE, Haimar	ESP	RADIOSHACK-NISSAN	59
7	MONFORT, Maxime	BEL	RADIOSHACK-NISSAN	+1:09
8	ROCHE, Nicolas	IRL	AG2R LA MONDIALE	+1:22
9	FROOME, Chris	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING	+1:32
10	ROGERS, Michael	AUS	SKY PROCYCLING	+1:40

Sprint Classification

Position	Name	Nationality	Team	Points
1	SAGAN, Peter	SVK	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	217
2	GOSS, Matthew Harley	AUS	ORICA-GREENEDGE	185
3	GREIPEL, André	GER	LOTTO BELISOL	172
4	CAVENDISH, Mark	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING	129
5	PETACCHI, Alessandro	ITA	LAMPRE - ISD	109
6	BOASSON HAGEN, Edvald	NOR	SKY PROCYCLING	95
7	VEELERS, Tom	NED	ARG	76
8	CANCELLARA, Fabian	SUI	RADIOSHACK-NISSAN	74
9	VAN HUMMEL, Kenny Robert	NED	VACANSOLEIL-DCM	69
10	HAEDO, Juan José	ARG	STB	68

Mountains Classification

Position	Name	Nationality	Team	Points
1	FROOME, Chris	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING	20
2	EVANS, Cadel	AUS	BMC RACING	16
3	WIGGINS, Bradley	GBR	SKY PROCYCLING	12
4	MORKOV, Michael	DEN	STB	9
5	NIBALI, Vincenzo	ITA	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	8
6	SÖRENSEN, Chris Anker	DEN	STB	4
7	TAARAMAE, Rein	EST	COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE	4
8	BASSO, Ivan	ITA	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	2
9	SAGAN, Peter	SVK	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	2
10	MONCOUTIE, David	FRA	COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE	2

Young Rider Classification

Position	Name	Nationality	Team	Time
1	TAARAMAE, Rein	EST	COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE	34:21:52
2	VAN GARDEREN, Tejay	USA	BMC RACING	+2:37
3	GALLOPIN, Tony	FRA	RADIOSHACK-NISSAN	+2:41
4	PINOT, Thibaut	FRA	FDJ-BIG MAT	+3:35
5	IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI, Gorka	ESP	EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI	+3:38
6	VALLS FERRI, Rafael	ESP	VACANSOLEIL-DCM	+4:44
7	KRUIJSWIJK, Steven	NED	RABOBANK	+8:19
8	MALACARNE, Davide	ITA	TEAM EUROPCAR	+8:20
9	BOASSON HAGEN, Edvald	NOR	SKY PROCYCLING	+9:08
10	SAGAN, Peter	SVK	LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE	+11:39

tags: 2012 Tour de France, Bradley Wiggins, Cadel Evans, Chris Froome

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neil_in_oz

You got a great spot Veeral and as for your shot showing Cuddle’s and Wiggo’s calves – wow…
- Gurmesh
  
  Wiggo’s calf looks a bit like a labia…
- Gus
  
  Great photo from down low looking at the rear of the legs of the final 3.
- Sam
  
  The deflection on Evans’ frame is what’s blowing my mind.
JC

It’s all very well for Porte Rogers Froome et al to string em out and protect Wiggins on the first medium mountain stage. Let’s see if they’re doing that weeks 2 and 3. Cadel will make up time on Wiggins in week 3 when Sky have packed it in
- http://twitter.com/tonyfahkry Tony Fahkry
  
  Well said JC. I noted this morning on Velonews Jim Ochowicz made the following comment:
  
  “…We saw [Sky] do it in Dauphiné,
  and it isn’t the first time this year they’ve put a lot of numbers at
  the front. But that’s a challenge we knew we would face, so it’s not
  something we’re afraid of or we’re hiding from.
  
  Let’s hope he has a counter attack to upstage The SKY mountain train.
YFUTFHV

The yellow jersey podium girl on Wiggin’s left hand side….. Same girl as on Cadel’s left hand side when he was given his yellow jersey in Grenoble last year…. (i remember her shocked look when Cadel throws the flowers into the crowd…..

Professional podium girls??
Teezy

Wiggans will find a way to screw everything up. Remember, his best result at a grand tour is 3rd.

…mind you, we used to say the same thing about Cadel…
Manis

Great pics yet again, thanks & keep it up please! Despite being a supreme athlete, master tactician, deserving Tour winner in a supreme team, Wiggo is still boring as bat-$£#%! Watching Cadels effort at the end is what we stay up late for!
http://cycling.norbtech.com/ norbs

Cuddles might not be able to break free going up the hills, but I reckon he will launch a few times going down. There, you heard it first here. :)
http://cycling.norbtech.com/ norbs

Cuddles might not be able to break free going up the hills, but I reckon he will launch a few times going down. There, you heard it first here. :)
- Rob
  
  Nibs and Cadel putting time into Wiggo on the descents – I for one, cannot wait.
- Notso Swift
  
  To true, tonight is a bit far at 20km, but there are 3 more “descents to the finish” which will make Wiggo work when Cuddles doesn’t need to… and over 3 weeks that could be critical
Paul

nice socks wiggo.
http://twitter.com/cliff_watkins Eeven

Froome should have won the Vuelta, instead he worked for some hairbrained dream of Albion. And I think as Manis stated, that he is the member of the team that I will actually care about. Even if the end result is a matter of Wiggo and Cadel playing rock, paper, scissors at 400 watts.
http://twitter.com/tomoose_ thomas rowley

Allez Wiggo!
mattb

anyone know if Sky release their SRM data like Lotto do?
justanotheropinion

BMC, Leakygas and Katusha team leaders need co-operate to jointly pressure SKY.
justanotheropinion

BMC, Leakygas and Katusha team leaders need co-operate to jointly pressure SKY.
http://www.nextlevelnutrition.com.au Alan McCubbin

It’s really interesting to see the approach that Sky have taken to the tour, very much in the mould of the English Institute of Sport (modeled heavily on our AIS) program from which the team was born. These programs have changed winning in Olympic sports from an art form into a science over the last 10-20 years, and now they get a chance to apply this same approach in pro cycling.

Certainly all the comments Sky have been making allude to the amount of thought and planning that’s gone into trying to win the tour, in terms of the way the team train with such specificity, and the way they tactically approach the race (esp. the climbs and TT’s). Very different approach to say Schleck and Contador duking it out with their cat and mouse games. It’s maybe not the most exciting thing to watch as a spectator when teams use such methodical science over panache, but it’s getting the job done for them.

I wonder if the scientific rigour that teams like Sky (plus GreenEdge with their AIS roots) bring to the table adds a dimension to the sport that the Euros will need to emulate to remain successful in the coming years. Now that Sky have got the talent to match their scientific prowess they’re starting to dominate (think Algarve, Paris-Nice, Romandie, Dauphine, Bayern-Rundfahrt and Tour of Norway).
- Robert Merkel
  
  Maybe. Still doesn’t explain how Richie Porte can drop everybody but Evans and Taramaae on a relatively short climb.
  - Dylan
    
    Not sure if you’re trying to imply something, but Richie basically has the highest power to weight ratio in the pro peloton, he just doesn’t have enough km’s in the legs to put it all together yet.
    - http://www.nextlevelnutrition.com.au Alan McCubbin
      
      The difference is that Richie only needs to hold the that kind of tempo for maybe 70-80% of the climb, those with GC aspirations have to keep up the pace (albeit a slightly lower PO sitting on a wheel) until Richie and each other rider in turn) pulls off, then continue to maintain a PO on their limit all the way to the top of the climb. The Science of Sport guys did a great write up of this back in 2010 – http://www.sportsscientists.com/2010/07/power-outputs-from-tour-de-france.html
      
      Also consider that last night’s climb was relatively short (but steep) by Tour standards. It’ll be interesting to see how the same tactic from Sky works on the longer but not quite as steep climbs. My guess is that’ll depend on how long into the climbs Richie, Mick and Froome can maintain a good tempo that holds off any significant attacks, but at the same time doesn’t put themselves (or Wiggo) into the red.
- charlie
  
  For all of the indicators (& success so far) that this sort of scientific approach is producing for Sky, surely it’s based on what they can do under training conditions where the psychological stress of race conditions involving opposition tactics, malfunctions & the unexpected cannot be replicated. I guess this is where we will see just how deserving Wiggins is a TDF winner.
  - http://www.nextlevelnutrition.com.au Alan McCubbin
    
    I’d think for a team like Sky they know what performance KPI’s they have to meet in training to be competitive, and they have a carefully crafted plan (and likely Plan B & C as well), so it’s a matter of executing this on race day. You’re right in that the pressure of the TdF is unlike any other event on the calendar – Sky have also put a lot of effort into Sports Psychology this year as well which may or may not help them when it comes to the crunch. All we can judge on is performances so far this year, and so far Sky have dominated the majority of stage races they’ve turned up to win.
Bracks_ashat

LMAO good luck defending the yellow Wiggo from so early on. You won’t be in yellow in Paris that’s for sure.
- Andy B
  
  You’re the same bloke that said Cadel wouldn’t ever win the TdF and if he did you’d give 10 CT readers Bora wheels or some garbage! But, yeah, Wiggo in yellow this early could be tough to defend to Paris
  - Bracks_ashat
    
    Comeon now, you need to keep up with the times. That was so last year!
Alexanderhendry

So what happened to Goss at the mid-sprint?
- JBS
  
  The same thing that happened to van den Broeck I think, dropped his chain. The Inner Ring made a very interest point about that today. Apparently, and I say that because I’ve never ridden electronic, this is hearsay from me, when you drop your chain with electronic shifting you can’t force the chain back as you would with a cable system. Makes me wonder if a few of the top riders will start switching back to cable shifting.
  
  I know, I know, in theory, electronic systems can’t drop the chain, but if everything matched the theory, Cancellara would never lose a TT.
Thethorpster

Will Sky burn out trying to keep the high tempo on the climbs to stop attacks ? Cadel finished in front of Wiggo on ST, I think Cadel won the mind games but not the stage. Long way to go yet
jules

CT i think you are being harsh on Cadel’s time trialling. most of those you quoted were in his ‘wilderness years’. last years Tour time trial, where he would probably have won if he’d kept the pedal to the floor, is hopefully a better indication of what we can expect. if he can TT that well this year, i don’t Wiggo can count on making much time on him in the TTs.
- http://www.chromaticdramatic.com/ Chromatic Dramatic
  
  Agree. I don’t think he’ll lose a whole chunk of time tonight, but Wiggins should still retain yellow.
- Andy B
  
  Agree Jules. He would have won the 2012 TdF ITT (over Tony Martin for f__ sake!) if John Lelangue hadn’t slowed him down. Plus, Dauphine 2012 he had no water bottle in 30 odd degree heat, Wiggins started catching him and he stepped it up again. Cadel is playing his cards close to his chest I reckon… Maybe it’s wishful thinking on my part….
- http://www.cyclingTipsBlog.com cyclingTips
  
  I don’t mean to be a naysayer. When I look at the stages coming up I just have a hard time seeing where and how Cadel is going to make up the time he needs on Wiggins. My hope is that Cadel will make up time on stage 11. The difference of output with guys like Wiggins and Evans from a few years ago is only 2-3%, nothing more. The biggest difference is their ability to handle themselves throughout a 3 week tour.
  - Todd!
    
    Its a long way to Paris Wade… Cadel will be there… He didnt shy away from Andy, he isn’t going to shy away from Sky.
    
    Say hi to him from me if you get a chance…
  - justanotheropinion
    
    Wade could you re-post a pic I saw last year of Wiggins from side on were you got to see how big his feet are? They were massive he looked like a kangaroo. It was then I realised the extra leverage he must have that most people do not. Maybe some posters might realise the talent he is.
http://profiles.google.com/aglogan Andy Logan

So many haters, if BMC was doing this for Cadel then the vast majority of you would be thinking its awesome, there wouldnt be any claims that there on the juice etc etc. However Team Sky and Wiggins and immediately people get on the defensive. Personally I think its awesome there Sky blew it to bits going up the climb.

There is no way any of them are doping, they wouldnt be that stupid, not having gone to the liberty of presenting to the ASO about their training methods and why none of their (Sky) riders are so strong currently.

Lets see what happens on Monday for the TT…I suspect Wiggo will put some big time into the rest of the GC contenders.
- justanotheropinion
  
  I agree with most of your comments bar the second paragraph, those comments have been said before and rued. I am not suggesting that they SKY are doping, but to say they or anyone is not doping well history says those are silly words. Some people will always dope but lets leave the testers to seek those out. All riders should support testing however inconvenient. The best suggestion I have ever heard is that the prize money goes into a Superannuation type fund were the athlete will only get access to it after a certain period of time ie 5-10 years I think was mentioned were there has been ample time for archived samples to be tested when reliable technologies allow detection of the products or indicators.
  
  My observation is probably like others, Wiggins speaks well in all interviews I have seen, he appears clear in his role and what needs to be done to achieve the teams goal (SKY/Wiggins win the tour) and his riding in the stages so far is reflecting this. He just sat a covered Evans last night. The only SKY problem I see is Cavendish as he is having to ride like Robbie McEwen and he is not that comfortable with that style yet in the lead up to the final crescendo of a sprinters stage.
  
  I am over Sagan and his victory salutes. (Please stop it you are just making me not like you for a superficial reason)
jules

CT i think you are being harsh on Cadel’s time trialling. most of those you quoted were in his ‘wilderness years’. last years Tour time trial, where he would probably have won if he’d kept the pedal to the floor, is hopefully a better indication of what we can expect. if he can TT that well this year, i don’t Wiggo can count on making much time on him in the TTs.
http://www.chromaticdramatic.com/ Chromatic Dramatic

When will Cadel make time… Stage 10 for one. Possibly even tomorrow / tonight (ie Stage 8) too.

Re Cadel being isolated. I don’t see it as a big problem yet. Yeah it would have been better to have other riders there, but they always knew Sky’s train will be there, so the only real benefit of having your own train there is if you’re intending to ride off the other one. That said, I was surprised that Tejay was off so soon.
- jules
  
  the difficulty for cadel will be if Sky have the ammo to start throwing 1-2 punches at cadel – froome off the front, forcing cadel to chase with wiggo able to measure his response. this is what won Sastre and CSC the 2008 Tour over cadel.
  - http://www.chromaticdramatic.com/ Chromatic Dramatic
    
    Maybe if Froome hadn’t lost a whole chunk of time in Stage 1… as it stands at the moment, he just has to worry about Wiggins (I know Sastre wasn’t too different possie, but the fact that Wiggins didn’t work solely for Froome at the Vuelta when he was the obvious candidate to win supports that).
  - JBS
    
    True, but given Froome has lost time and doesn’t TT as well as Cadel, I’d suggest if its Cadel v Wiggins and Froome, Cadel should just let Froome go, isolate Wiggins then hit him hard once Froome is up the road.
    
    I know this is how he lost to Sastre, but I think Riis is a much better poker player than Brailsford. Sky have been too vocal about it all being for Wiggins and last year’s Vuelta showed that Wiggins doesn’t like being upstaged by a helper.
    - Todd!
      
      Its the first time the race has really gone uphill. I think it caught a lot by surprise on jus thow selective it was… Cadel would have stood his team down and said he had it on his own – in the end, Froome had a big time loss already, gained no time on either Cadel or Wiggo…
      
      There are plenty more to come… including more organised run from many of the GC hopefuls teams.
      - http://www.chromaticdramatic.com/ Chromatic Dramatic
        
        Pretty much what I was thinking… but we’ll see! Should be a great tour!
- Rusty
  
  If there is wet mountain stages Wiggins will have to stop and put on his training wheels for the descents – big time to be made there!
  - Anonymous
    
    Where’s all the evidence that Wiggins is a muppet on a descent? He’s no risk-taker but trackies know how to handle a bike alright.
    - Andy B
      
      I don’t think there is but Cadel is one of the best in the business. I suppose that’s the point.
    - Shazbucket
      
      I agree. Wiggins is fine at descending. Better than the likes of Basso and Schleck who openly admit their descending skills are not at the top. However, people like Evans, Nibali, Cancellara and a few others are in a league of their own and have the ability to put daylight between themselves and their rivals
      - Andy B
        
        Imagine if Thor was riding and at the top of a climb it was Gilbert, Hushovd and Evans descending together! Team BMC has 3 of the top descenders in the business… 2 in the Tour…
        
        Bracks_ashat
        
        What happened to Thor this year?
    - Tricky Dicky
      
      Wiggo has actually admitted it himself, saying he has lost his nerve a bit. That said, he’s not as bad as the Schlecks, just not as good as Nibali or Contador. Evans is good but I was surprised he couldn’t make any impression on Quintana in the big descent in the Dauphine so he may not be quite as good as Nibbles. Anyway, Nibbles needs time and lots of it (Vaughters reckons Wiggins has him for 2 minutes in the first TT alone) so we should see some risk-taking if he is going to back up some of his trash-talking.
KD

I miss Andy and Contador. Watching Sky TT up every climb isn’t exactly compelling viewing, fingers crossed those who’ve lost considerable time on the GC will light up the mountain stages to come.
PSmith Consulting

I want to see Sagan pop a wheelie as his next victory salute
Michal

Wiggins may let go yellow jersey to break before time trial?
http://www.littlepeople.id.au Chris Little

*10 second lead (not 6)
The Wookie

I don’t think Brad meant that he was pushing 470-480 Watts all the way up the climb, I think he meant whoever was at the front was pushing that, so he was pushing considerably less - 420 odd. In any case, surely Brad isn’t 69kg – the man’s 6’3, and definitely looks healthier/heavier than when he was 72kg two years ago at the tour.